Dangote refinery’s domestic supply rises from 31% to 72.3%
650,000 bpd facility supplies 5.5 billion litres of PMS to Nigerian market
Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja
In a significant economic pivot in Nigeria’s downstream history, the nation has successfully reduced its reliance on foreign-refined petrol by a staggering 85.14 per cent in just six months, underscoring the overriding impact of the 650,000 barrels per day Dangote Refinery.
A THISDAY analysis of data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) during the six-month period from October 2025 to March 2026 revealed that overall the refinery provided 54.32 per cent of the total petrol consumed across the country, effectively ending decades of total import dependence.
Total national consumption during the period under consideration hit 10.277 billion litres, out of which the Dangote Refinery injected 5.582 billion litres of petrol into the domestic market, the data revealed. This represents a monumental shift in Nigeria’s downstream sector, as a single local entity now provides more than half of the nation’s energy requirements.
In percentage terms, the Dangote Refinery’s contribution ranged from a low of 31.23 per cent in October 2025 to a peak of 72.30 per cent in March 2026, as the refinery cleared technical hurdles and raised capacity utilisation which climbed to 93.62 per cent in March.
The trajectory of the refinery’s market share showed a rapid ascent. In October 2025, Nigeria’s total daily consumption stood at 57.74 million litres, with Dangote contributing a minute 18.03 million litres, a 31.2 per cent share of the market. By January 2026, even as national consumption rose to 60.2 million litres daily, the refinery’s ramp-up to 40.1 million litres daily pushed its market share to a staggering 66.6 per cent for that month.
This surge in domestic supply provided the much-needed stability to the Nigerian economy. In December 2025, when national consumption peaked at 63.7 million litres per day due to festive season travel, the refinery hit its first major milestone by delivering nearly 1 billion litres in a single month, a review of the data showed.
Besides, while national consumption fluctuated, hitting a low of 47.3 million litres daily in March 2026, the refinery’s production remained robust. The refinery’s capacity utilisation reached a record 93.62 per cent in March, even as it optimised its domestic evacuation to align with the lower national demand.
Following the refinery’s growing efficiency, the NMDPRA has now significantly scaled back import licenses. In March 2026, total national consumption was almost entirely covered by domestic production, with imports reduced considerably.
By providing 5.58 billion litres in six months, the refinery stabilised Nigeria’s petroleum distribution network, which consists of over 22,681 retail outlets, reducing the logistical “dead time” previously associated with waiting for offshore mother vessels to discharge products at coastal ports for imported fuels.
For decades, Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer was ironically tethered to European and Middle Eastern refineries to meet its local energy needs. But the data confirmed that the era of total import dependence is effectively over.
The most aggressive decline occurred between December 2025 and February 2026. As local refining capacity at the Dangote Petroleum Refinery scaled up, the daily import bill was slashed from 42.2 million litres in December to a historic low of just 3.0 million litres per day in February 2026.
In essence, THISDAY’s review showed that imports fell from a peak of 1.44 billion litres in November 2025 to just 182.9 million litres in March 2026.
Besides, by the close of the first quarter of 2026, Nigeria’s domestic sufficiency rate for petrol had climbed to over 87 per cent, with local refineries led by the Dangote plant, providing the vast majority of the 47.3 million litres consumed daily by Nigerians.
Overall, the 85 per cent reduction in imports represents a massive logistical shift. The NMDPRA fact sheets indicated that the distribution network, which utilises a fleet of over 25,000 tanker trucks, is now almost exclusively loading from domestic depots rather than waiting for offshore vessels to discharge imported fuel.
However, while the Dangote Refinery continues to make progress, the government-owned Port Harcourt and Warri refineries remained in shutdown mode throughout the period, leaving the private facility to fill the void.
The data showed that even during peak consumption months like December (63.7 million litres daily), the strategic ramping up of domestic supply allowed the regulator to scale back import orders without triggering the fuel queues that have historically defined the Nigerian holiday season.
Besides, the NMDPRA’s March 2026 highlights showed that of the 40.1 million litres supplied daily to the market, 34.2 million litres came from domestic sources. As the final 5.9 million litres of imports are phased out, Nigeria now stands on the cusp of becoming a net exporter of refined petroleum products for the first time in its history, the analysis showed.
But while petrol remains the flagship product, the facility’s ability to maintain high utilisation rates (averaging 74 per cent across the period) has ensured that secondary products like diesel also reached the market consistently, peaking at 10.9 million litres daily in domestic supply during January 2026.
In all, the NMDPRA fact sheets indicated that the only other domestic contributors were modular refineries like Waltersmith and Aradel. However, these facilities are currently optimised for diesel and kerosene) production, making Dangote’s share of the overall petrol market even more critical to national energy security.
The NMDPRA also noted that the domestic gas supply remained a pillar of the energy mix, staying steady at 4.88 Bscf/day by March 2026. This stability in gas, combined with the refinery’s petrol output, suggests that Nigeria is moving toward a more balanced energy portfolio.
🚨 BREAKING: Watch the full clip here ➤
