When the US and Israel launched pre-emptive strikes into Iran on February 28, the ‘existential’ and ‘imminent’ threats cited by them were more associated with Iran’s nuclear programme and its ballistic missile capabilities. Obviously, the regime in Iran was a major irritant too. What was definitely not in any equation or calculation was the Strait of Hormuz and how this narrow sea passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and the wider Indian Ocean could become the primary issue in the conflict.
Result? Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz early in the war claiming that it is open but only if the ships follow its ‘technical instructions’. As soon as a few tankers defying the diktat were bombed and up in flames, the Strait became automatically closed, remaining open technically only to select ships on a case-by-case basis and, as per reports, payment of a premium to Iran. Iran also claimed to have mined the main channels in the Strait and redesignated the ‘in-and-out channels’ closer to its shores, on either side of its Larak Island. The US Navy, threatened by Iranian missiles and drones, had to retreat out of the Persian Gulf, into a safe distance into the Sea of Oman, and President Trump issued a warning that if the free passage through the Strait of Hormuz is not opened by 8.00 PM EST on April 8, 2026, the US and Israel will bomb and destroy Iran’s power infrastructure and bridges.
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With Iran not relenting, Israel in fact, bombed and damaged a crucial railway bridge, the Yahya Abad railway bridge in central Iran’s Kashan city on April 7, while the US conducted airstrikes on the Kharg island of Iran targeting critical oil infrastructure on the same day. Just as it was looking like the conflict could escalate sharply, against the run of play, Trump unilaterally declared a 15-day ceasefire mere 90 minutes before the deadline was to expire, stating that it was based on conversations and request from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the “COMPLETE”, “IMMEDIATE”, and “SAFE OPENING” of the Strait of Hormuz. He added that the US had received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believed it was a workable basis on which to negotiate.
As a result of the ceasefire, which Iran agreed to, the first ever face-to-face talks since the 1979 Iranian Revolution between Iran and the US took place in Pakistan on April 10. The extremely high-profile and crucial meeting was led by Vice President JD Vance from the US and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. However, after 21 hours of talks, there was no breakthrough and President Trump promptly announced a ‘naval blockade’ of the Strait of Hormuz, virtually blocking the ‘technical blockade’ imposed by Iran earlier, making it clear that the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the most important point of contention in any efforts to break the deadlock.
The Geography Of Hormuz
The narrow sea passage is about 30-50 km wide, with the narrowest point being just about 21 km. It links the vital Persian Gulf to the West to the Oman Sea, and further the Arabian Sea to the East, making it a crucial sea link that has no physical alternative in near vicinity. It is a global lifeline through which 20% of global crude oil and LPG transits. In 2025, about 20 million barrels of oil and oil products passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day, according to estimates from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which itself was worth nearly USD 600 billion.
It has two distinct sea channels earmarked for passage, deep enough for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) tanker ships, each having a capacity to carry up to 2 million barrels of oil, to pass through.
Iran’s Military Edge
The closure of Strait of Hormuz, first by Iran and now by the US, is raising the prospects of a potential military option to forcefully open it. The question however, of whether the Strait of Hormuz can be forcefully opened, needs to be examined in detail.
It may be recalled that the US Navy had deployed its aircraft carrier group, Abraham Lincoln, in the Persian Gulf in the initial days of the war but had to move it out to the Arabian Sea, away from the missile range of Iran, as it was being interdicted; there were fears of damage as well as embarrassment for the US in case any missile or drone did succeed in a direct hit. In fact, President Trump, in one of his public addresses, did accept the fact that more than hundred missiles and drones were fired at the aircraft carrier, though they were successfully thwarted. Why did an imposing weapon platform like the US aircraft carrier face such a situation and had to withdraw to a safe distance? The answer lies more in geography, and, to a certain extent, in the asymmetric tactics employed by Iran.
The Strait, as mentioned earlier, is merely 21 kilometres wide at its narrowest, and that implies that Iran has close watch on any ship that transits the Strait, right from its coastline. It also implies that Iran has the capability to militarily interdict any ship through its artillery guns, short-range missiles and drones. It is also reported to have a large number of fast-attack boats, many of them unmanned, and which, therefore, can be employed in a Kamikaze role to ram into any ship. Plus, it has something unique: shallow water submarines, which remain largely undetected and can surprise any commercial and military ship with almost no warning time.
The three islands in the Strait – Qeshm, Hormuz, and Larak – located in the vicinity of its narrowest part, add another layer of strength to Iran’s defensive battle. These islands are the gateway or the ‘toll gate’ to the Strait of Hormuz, and anyone who controls them has significant leverage over keeping the waterway open or closed. With very strong fortifications, close proximity to Iran’s coastline and lack of natural cover, any sustained operations over it are likely to be met with stiff resistance. Plus, Iran has already notified that the main channels in the Strait have been mined with floating, submerged and remote mines. Most experts are of the view that in case the US Navy does undertake a mine-clearing operation, not only will it be extremely time-consuming but also vulnerable to interdiction from Iran.
As regards commercial ships, Iran does not have to interdict each and every ship but only instil a sense of doubt and fear in the shipping and insurance companies, to force them to follow its ‘technical instructions’. For the US Navy to enforce a military blockage, few issues need to be noted. As of April 15, none of the allies, including the Gulf nations and Europe, have agreed to support the US in its military adventure. Secondly, an average of 120-130 commercial ships used to transit the Strait of Hormuz before the war. Even if 50% of these ships came from non-Iranian ports, will the US be able to ensure safe passage in case Iran decides to interdict them? How much naval power is required to do that, and that, too, on a daily basis? Thirdly, a number of ships originating from Iranian ports and transiting the Strait are China-bound. Will the US Navy interdict these ships? Chinese Defence Minister Admiral Dong Jun has already issued a warning: “We have trade and energy agreements with Iran; we expect others not to interfere in our affairs.” He also asserted that the Strait of Hormuz remains open for China.
Fear Factors – And China
The double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, on one side by Iran and on the other side by the US, has rapidly transformed the war from the issues on the mainland of Iran to a war over the chokepoint. Iran is relying on the symmetric advantage of geography to fight against the brute power of the world’s largest and most powerful navy, the US. As the days progress and the deadline of the current ceasefire ends on April 21, it is a battle that is likely to be fought more in the mind than on the ground.
Can Iran instil enough fear and caution to deter any ship that it does not approve of, or can the US physically ensure an improbable task of ensuring safe passage of ships that it approves? Will China sit quiet if its ships originating from Iran are stopped? If not, then whether this will drag China into the war, for the first time, is a big question. If the circumstances do not change, will Trump still go forward with his visit to China on May 14-15?
Many more questions will emerge if the deadlock continues. What is, however, clear is that the Strait of Hormuz has rapidly emerged as the ‘Centre of Gravity’ and the jugular vein, the resolution of which holds the key to future trajectory of the war.
(The author is a retired Army officer and a senior research consultant at Chintan Research Foundation)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
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