Siminalayi Fubara’s move into the APC has changed the political structure in Rivers State, but it has not settled anything. Instead, it has created a clearer contest over who controls the party and who decides its direction towards 2027.
Tonye Cole is still very present in this contest, being aligned with the Emeka Beke faction, which has court recognition as the legitimate APC structure in the state. That legal backing is the man’s main advantage, allowing him to question the validity of Fubara’s entry, which came through the rival Tony Okocha faction. In simple terms, Cole is arguing that the governor joined through the wrong door.
All of this is because party structure determines candidate selection. If Cole’s position holds, he could influence who gets the APC ticket in 2027. That keeps him relevant, even without holding office.
At the same time, Cole has not stepped back from his own ambition. He has indicated interest in the governorship race and continues to speak on the state’s political direction. His comments on Fubara’s position have been pointed. He has described the governor as constrained and urged him to reach a working arrangement with existing power blocs in the state.
The result is that Cole is now both a participant in the contest and a gatekeeper within the party, which creates two possible paths: one path leads to negotiation, the second to conflict.
With the negotiation path, Fubara aligns with the Beke structure, and both sides reach a political understanding. This would stabilise the APC and reduce the risk of internal disputes. With the conflict path, legal battles over party legitimacy could escalate. Rivers APC has faced this before, most notably in 2019 when internal disputes kept it off the ballot.
Ultimately, it cannot end up in who wins. At least, not yet. The current tension is over who controls the party structure long enough to decide.
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