IMF forecasts Nigeria’s economy to grow by 4.1% in 2026

The forecast places Nigeria ahead of many advanced and emerging economies in the IMF 2026 growth projection.

Nigeria is expected to remain one of the resilient economies in 2026, with growth projected at 4.1 per cent, even as global growth stays weak, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The report projects Nigeria economy to grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027, up from the 4.0 per cent projected in 2025.

The forecast places Nigeria ahead of many advanced and emerging economies in the IMF 2026 growth projection.

The report also forecasts that global economic growth will slow down to 3.1 per cent in 2026 before edging up slightly to 3.2 per cent in 2027, while global headline inflation is expected to increase modestly in 2026.

The IMF said the slowdown in global growth is mainly due to the conflict in the Middle East, adding that this came amid higher trade barriers and uncertainty in 2025.

“After withstanding higher trade barriers and elevated uncertainty last year, global activity now faces a major test from the outbreak of war in the Middle East.

“Assuming that the conflict remains limited in duration and scope, global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027,” the IMF stated.

The global body added that the slowdown in growth and increase in inflation are expected to be particularly pronounced in emerging markets and developing economies.

In contrast, developing economies continue to drive global growth with India leading the pack with a robust 6.5 per cent growth forecast, while China is expected to grow by 4.4 per cent in 2026.

Several leading economies are projected to grow at a much slower pace. The United States is forecast to grow by 2.3 per cent in 2026, while Europe’s largest economy, Germany, is expected to grow at just 0.8 per cent.

Other major European economies such as France (0.9 per cent) and Italy (0.5 per cent) are also projected to see limited expansion, which reflects persistent energy-related challenges.