A policy review highlights potential gains for manufacturers and challenges for import-dependent businesses under new tariff changes.
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) on Sunday said Nigeria’s 2026 fiscal policy measures signal a strong shift towards domestic production and industrialisation, but warned that the changes could create adjustment pressures for import-dependent businesses.
The framework includes changes to the Import Adjustment Tax across 192 tariff lines, reductions in duties on key industrial inputs, and the introduction of a National List covering 127 items that will attract lower tariffs of between zero and 10 per cent.
According to the CPPE, one of the most significant aspects of the policy is the increase in tariffs on a wide range of imported finished goods such as food items, textiles, plastics and metal products, with combined duties ranging from 20 to 70 per cent.
The centre said this would raise the cost of imports and improve the competitiveness of locally produced goods, potentially encouraging investment in manufacturing and related sectors.
It noted that industries such as agro-processing, light manufacturing, packaging and basic metals are likely to benefit, as higher import costs could drive demand for locally produced alternatives.
The CPPE also said that reducing tariffs on industrial inputs, including machinery and intermediate goods, is expected to lower production costs and support manufacturing growth.
“The policy coherence, higher tariffs on finished goods alongside lower tariffs on inputs, clearly signals a structured industrialisation pathway,” the centre said.
However, the organisation cautioned that businesses heavily reliant on imports may face increased costs and operational challenges.
It said higher tariffs could lead to rising import bills, pressure on profit margins and the need for companies to rethink their business models.
The centre also raised concerns about what it described as limited fiscal protection for Nigeria’s domestic petroleum refining sector, despite recent investments in local refining capacity.
It recommended introducing protective tariffs on locally refined petroleum products to encourage further investment and reduce pressure on foreign exchange.
The CPPE further called for a review of tariffs on used vehicles, noting that current rates exceeding 50 per cent when additional charges are included, could limit access to transportation and affect employment in sectors such as ride-hailing.
It also proposed lower import duties and tax waivers for mass transit vehicles and renewable energy equipment to ease transportation and energy costs for businesses and households.
The policy brief advised investors to align with the government’s push for domestic production by focusing on local manufacturing, value-chain integration and production-oriented investments.
It added that while the policy presents opportunities for sectors linked to industrialisation, it also introduces risks for trading and distribution businesses that depend on imports.
The CPPE said the overall direction of the policy reflects a broader effort to restructure Nigeria’s economy towards production, warning that businesses that fail to adapt may struggle in the changing environment.
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