Dangote Supplies over 72% of Nigeria’s Petrol as Consumption Falls 16.9%

• Import share jumps 96.7% to 5.9m litres/day from 3m litres in February  

•Rise in imported fuel is despite NMDPRA’s denial of license issuance  

•LPG demand exceeds supply by 396MT per day

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

The Dangote Refinery supplied about 72.3 per cent of Nigeria’s total domestic demand for petrol in March, but with consumption falling by approximately 16.9 per cent during the period under consideration from 56.9 million litres per day in February to 47.3 million litres last month.

Besides, although still modest compared to last year’s massive importation, the share of petrol imports in the supply mix surged by 96.7 per cent month-on-month, rising from 3 million litres per day to 5.9 million litres/day during the period.

Data from the March 2026 fact sheet on midstream and downstream petroleum operations provided by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) yesterday, showed that the 47.3 million litres per day consumption for march fell below the national average of 50 million litres per day.

Overrall, the data indicated that total domestic petrol supply stood at 34.2 million litres per day in March. When measured against total consumption of 47.3 million litres per day, this placed Dangote Refinery’s contribution at approximately 72.3 per cent of the domestic market, reaffirming its dominant role in the country’s fuel supply chain.

However, the supply mix also reflected a sharp increase in the role of imports. The fact sheet showed that petrol import contribution rose from 3 million litres per day in February to 5.9 million litres per day in March, equivalent to a 96.7 per cent jump in import share.

However, this increase in imported petrol between February and March was despite the downstream regulator’s insistence that it has halted the issuance of import licenses to oil marketers for months.

For over a year, owner of the 650,000 barrels per day facility in Lagos, Aliko Dangote, has pushed to end petrol imports in order to, according to him, protect local refining and grow the economy. Dangote’s refinery, which began production of petrol in 2024, has argued that Nigeria’s import licensing regime undermines local refining by allowing marketers to continue bringing in petrol even when domestic supply is increasing.

The company has maintained that under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), imports should only be permitted when there is a clear supply shortfall, not as a parallel system competing with local production.

On the other hand, oil marketers and a cross section of Nigerians believe that leaving the market solely for Dangote, without any competition from any other refinery, especially from NNPC’s defunct Port Harcourt and Warri refineries will lead to a monopoly and inflated pump prices.

The NMDPRA fact sheet further showed that other domestic refining sources contributed only marginal volumes, specifically diesel refining. The three operational modular refineries: Walter Smith, Edo Refinery, and Aradel collectively supplied about 0.629 million litres per day of diesel during the month.

Walter Smith refinery operated at an average capacity utilisation of 59.56 per cent, supplying 0.241 million litres per day. Edo Refinery recorded 64.69 per cent utilisation with 0.051 million litres per day, while Aradel posted 58.84 per cent utilisation, delivering 0.337 million litres per day.

Average diesel consumption during the period stood at 14.5 million litres daily, slightly above the 14 million litres per day national benchmark, despite the rising prices as a result of the Middle East crisis, indicating sustained demand from industrial and commercial users.

Similarly, in March, aviation fuel consumption remained lower at 2.1 million litres per day compared to the 3 million litres per day benchmark for the country and against the 2.9 million litres per day supplied in February.

In the whole gas market segment, total supply averaged 4.888 Billion Standard Cubic Feet Per Day (Bscf/d). Of this, 3.033 Bscf/d was supplied to the Nigeria LNG (NLNG), representing approximately 62 per cent of total gas supply.

Domestic gas supply stood at 1.855 Bscf/d, with utilisation spread across key sectors. Gas-to-power accounted for 0.485 Bscf/d, commercial consumption stood at 0.430 Bscf/d, and gas-based industries utilised 0.601 Bscf/d.

In the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) segment, the NMDPRA data indicated that demand outpaced supply during the period. Average daily supply stood at 4,726 metric tonnes, while consumption reached 5,122 metric tonnes per day, leaving a shortfall of 396 metric tonnes daily. Also, retail LPG prices ranged between N980 and N1,450 per kilogramme nationally.

Fuel sufficiency data showed that petrol stock levels stood at 21 days, including pumpable volumes at the Dangote Refinery, diesel sufficiency was 55 days, aviation fuel stood at 109 days, and LPG at 14 days.

In the same vein, the midstream and downstream regulator put the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline completion level at 79.23 per cent; OB3 River Crossing at 59.50 per cent and the Odidi-Warri Expansion Project (OWEP) at 67.34 per cent completion rate.