A political analyst at the Aliko Dangote University of Science and Technology, Professor, Murtala Muhammad, has warned that growing doubts about the neutrality of the Independent National Electoral Commission could deepen political divisions and lead to more court cases before and after the 2027 general elections.
In an exclusive interview with DAILY POST, the professor spoke on recent developments, including INEC’s decision nit to recognize some national leaders of the African Democratic Congress, saying the situation is already shaping how Nigerians view the electoral body.
“This perception has reinforced broader claims that the Independent National Electoral Commission is facilitating a gradual shift toward a one party dominant system ahead of the 2027 elections,” he said.
Nigeria’s political scene has in recent months seen rising tension within opposition parties, especially the ADC, where leadership disputes have created factions and confusion over who is in charge. INEC’s role in recognising party leadership has placed it at the centre of the controversy.
Professor Muhammad said opposition leaders are becoming more vocal in their criticism of the commission.
“Opposition leaders have called for the resignation of the INEC Chairman, citing his alleged actions and reported social media expressions perceived as sympathetic to the ruling All Progressives Congress,” he said. “They argue that his continued leadership risks undermining the credibility and perceived neutrality of future electoral processes.”
He explained that even though some of these claims are disputed, what matters most is how the public understands the situation.
“These narratives carry significant implications for voter confidence and the broader outcome of the 2027 elections,” he said.
“While criticisms of the INEC Chairman’s past conduct may erode public trust by signaling possible bias, there are also people defending the institution, which makes the situation more complex.”
According to him, the country may experience a divide in trust along political lines.
“The more likely outcome is a polarization of trust,” he said.
“Supporters of opposition parties will grow more skeptical, while those aligned with the ruling party may continue to have confidence in the system.”
He warned that this divide could affect how people participate in the elections.
“Such polarization may shape voter turnout, increase disputes before and after the elections, and affect how people accept the results,” he said. “In this situation, what people believe about INEC may matter more than what the commission actually does.”
Nigeria has a history of election disputes, with many results challenged in court. The 2019 and 2023 elections both ended with legal battles, showing how important public trust in the electoral body is.
Professor Muhammad said the 2027 elections could face even more challenges if current concerns are not addressed.
“As belief in bias grows, the 2027 elections could become more contested, more litigated, and possibly unstable,” he added.
On the crisis within the ADC, especially the controversy around factional leadership involving Nafiu Bala, the professor said suspicion is already affecting political trust.
“Even the suspicion that some actors within the opposition may be working with the ruling party feeds into this wider narrative.
“It strengthens the belief among some Nigerians that the political space is not balanced,” he said.
He added that internal divisions within opposition parties could weaken their chances.
“When opposition parties are divided and also doubtful of the electoral body, it becomes harder for them to build confidence among voters,” he said.
Despite the concerns, he said trust can still be rebuilt if the right steps are taken.
“What is needed now is transparency, fairness, and clear communication from INEC,” he said. “Without that, perceptions of bias will continue to influence how people see the elections.”
As the 2027 elections draw closer, observers say the actions of INEC and how Nigerians interpret them will play a major role in determining whether the elections are widely accepted or disputed.
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