The Diet Coke has become an unexpected casualty of the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driven by a global squeeze in aluminium supplies and its shortage being felt acutely in India where it is sold only in cans.
Retailers and consumers in key Indian cities, including Mumbai, Bengaluru, Pune, Ahmedabad, and Gurugram, reported empty shelves and patchy availability on delivery platforms.
In India, Diet Coke supplies have been particularly hit because the product is sold almost entirely in aluminium cans, unlike other fizzy drinks such as Coke, Thums Up, and Pepsi, which are also available in PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate) plastic and returnable glass bottles.
One grocery retailer in the national capital region of Delhi told the Economic Times newspaper: “We are facing acute Diet Coke stock-outs since the weekend; if supplies do come, they are being immediately picked by consumers.”
A leading bottling partner told the outlet: “While can shortages are impacting all soft drinks, the reason why Diet Coke is seeing shortage in particular is because of a combination of factors. It is the fastest growing diet drink in the country by a significant margin.”
The pressure is not limited to soft drinks. Beer makers are also facing disruption as the same packaging shortages ripple through the drinks market.
The supply strain has been attributed to a mix of global and local disruptions, including shipping and logistics bottlenecks, as well as packaging-related adjustments under Indian compliance rules.
The Gulf accounts for around 9 per cent of global aluminium production, which has been trapped since the end of February by Iran’s de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Industry executives told the ET that Ball Beverage Packaging and Canpack – two of the world’s leading manufacturers of alluminum beverage cans – do not currently have enough capacity to meet demands, and new production lines could take 10 to 12 months.
The shortage sparked a meme-frenzy online.
Actor Yajat Dhingra wrote: “Please don’t leave Diet Coke lovers alone during these hard times of shortage.”
Digital content creator Tarun Singh from Delhi posted a video of cans of Diet coke, taking a dig at Mumbai residents over the shortage of the drink.
“Delhi might have 100 problems but having a Diet Coke ain’t one,” he wrote, referring to Delhi-Mumbai city rivalry.
Digital content creator Viraj Ghelani shared a video of himself wandering in the streets, looking lost, and rejecting every other alternative to Diet Coke. “When will this shortage end? Not able to gulp down the food,” he wrote.
Another user in a video said: “I will trade my soul for a Diet Coke.”
“All cylindrical objects are in short supply. Diet Coke in the new LPG (sic),” a user commented.
The Independent has reached out to Coca-Cola for a comment.
According to an ET report, Diet Coke has emerged as a leader for Coca Cola’s zero and low-sugar beverage market. This change is driven by increased health awareness, GenZ preferences and accessible price. Together, zero and low-sugar beverage portfolio of Coca Cola – spanning Diet Coke, Coke Zero, Thums UP X Force – account for an average of 30 per cent of overall sales in 2025, up from about five per cent 2020.
However, after Iranian airstrikes on two major Middle East producers in late March, the prices for aluminium, in which the beverage is canned, surged to a four-year high, with benchmark aluminium on the London Metal Exchange (LME) recording at $3,672 (£2721) a ton on 16 April.
Aluminium prices hit a record $4,073.50 (£3019) a ton in March 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a top producer of the metal.
Aluminium Bahrain, which runs the world’s largest single-site smelter, was under attack from Iran in late March, leaving two employees injured, the Bahrain Aluminium Giant said in a press release on 28 March, adding that it is “assessing the extent of the damage” to its facilities. Emirates Global Aluminium said its plant sustained “significant damage”.
It had earlier said it was shutting smelting lines representing 19 per cent of its capacity.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has already restricted shipments of aluminium to export markets in the United States and Europe, adding to factors leading to a surge in prices.
“Iran’s strikes on Middle Eastern aluminium plants are threatening to send a fragile market into crisis, raising the prospect of record prices,” Britannia Global Markets said.
“The conflict’s impact is being amplified because constraints on production elsewhere have eroded global inventories, leaving the market with little buffer against shocks.”
Stocks of aluminium in LME-approved warehouses have dropped more than 60 per cent since last May to 418,675 tons.
The Middle East is home to around seven million metric tons of aluminium smelting capacity, accounting for around nine per cent of global capacity. About 75 per cent of Middle Eastern aluminium production is exported, reported Reuters.
While Middle East does not dominate production, the disruption on the major shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, have an outsized impact on global trade flows and supply chains, creating uncertainty around the movement of raw materials like alumina, which is essential for aluminium production.
A top metals analyst at commodity trader Mercuria said that the global aluminium market is experiencing a “black swan” event as disruptions due to the Middle East war trigger a supply shock that will lead to major shortages this year.
“The scale of the supply shock we’re seeing in the aluminium market is probably the largest single supply shock a base metals market has suffered in the post-2000 era,” said Nick Snowdon, head of metals and mining research at Mercuria, on the sidelines of the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland.
“We are already in a ‘black swan’ event. No one could have foreseen something on this scale,” he told Reuters.
Mercuria estimates the market will face, at a minimum, a deficit of roughly two million tons between now and the end of the year.
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