AYODELE OKUNFOLAMI urges the ADC to resolve its leadership issues with the courts, woo voters and make up for lost time
Ever since Eid, a lot has happened to the opposition. Beginning with Peter Obi’s Sallah celebration in Kano with Rabiu Kwankwaso, political viewers suspected something was in the offing. Kwankwaso made it more exciting when he thereafter joined the African Democratic Congress with a possibility of a Kwankwaso-Obi or Obi-Kwankwaso ticket (however they pair). Since the Peoples Democratic Party has lost its numbers as the leading opposition force, the ADC finds itself in pole position as the leading opposition party heading into next year’s election.
It is bone obvious that the success of the Labour Party in the last electoral cycle was primarily because of Obi, who has now exercised a higher level of political maturity by aligning with a revamped ADC. Truth is, even if united, Peter Obi is bigger than LP, just as Kwankwaso is bigger than the New Nigeria Peoples Party he dumped. It is expected that if opposition figures should close ranks, the governing All Progressives Congress would have a match come 2027.
Meanwhile, why does the President and his minions bask in the euphoria of opposition politicians decamping to his party? What credential is it that under his watch a once vivacious democratic space is leaning towards a one-party state or an uncontested election like the five fingers of the leprous hand of Abacha? It doesn’t augur well that the strength of your political party is premised on the weakness and instability of other parties. That’s akin to Morocco’s AFCON pyrrhic victory. Yet, I am one of the few that believe, despite the high level of political, electoral and legal slyness taking place, presidential elections would always be razor-thin competitive with vibrant opposition. Nigeria is neither Rwanda, Togo, Cameroon nor Uganda.
Let me begin with Obi. He is arguably the most consequential African politician right now. I never gave him a chance in 2023, but beating the eventual winner of the elections in his Lagos stronghold is no small feat. He won all the states in the South East and a couple in the North Central. Obi is proof that you don’t need structure to give a fight. His 2023 campaign changed the dynamics. He has a very strong organic support base called Obidients, however, they are not on the decision table of party primary politics which may be the hurdle before him and picking the ADC ticket. My advice for the obidients is that they can’t bully their way into Aso Rock. I can understand their sentiments, but democracy has its rules. Also, there are compromises in politics, so insisting that Obi cannot be running mate to anybody is unwise.
My other admonition is that Obi should not chicken out of the ADC the way he did four years ago when the handwriting was on the wall that he wasn’t going to get the ticket of the PDP. Because the playing field in the ADC is as spirited.
Like Obi, Kwankwaso carries a red-hatted Kwankwassiya movement that follows him like a carnival. Buhari, who is now late, was the only other public figure in modern Nigeria politics that can gather a large rally without renting crowds.
Kwankwaso didn’t garner many votes in the last elections but holding and winning 60% of votes of a vital state like Kano could be pivotal for any presidential candidate. If “structureless” Obi alone irritates their skins talk less a Kwankwaso in the mix.
ADC should be game for 2027. Since the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar led the initiative to “reform” the party as the vehicle for a united opposition, I had speculated that a high level of political traffic would move towards the party as the PDP kept scoring own goals and not to the APC, alas, this is not the case so far. The movement appears slow. APC still has a way of attracting everybody. Only the politicians themselves know what is driving them there. How many elective offices, appointments or contracts are available in the first place that they are all moving towards the broom despite economic and security indices not pointing in APC’s favour? Another way to look at the slow political traffic towards ADC could be in its favour as it shouldn’t be seen to attract anybody available without principles or ideology. But this is Nigeria, who ideology epp?
Anyway, let’s look at Atiku’s chances. Yes, he is still in the race. He has been in the race since 1992 and doesn’t look like he is giving up until he has no legs to even run the country. Despite age not being on his side, I think it is unfair to demonise anybody’s ambition. You can’t tell an adult how he wants to live his life. It is easy to share Abraham Lincoln’s testimony of serially contesting until he finally became US President. In fact, Obafemi Awolowo continued to contest for the presidency until he died. So, it is up to the electorate to simply not vote for him if they think him not worthy for the position or Atiku himself convinces them otherwise. Is the Nigerian political space not largely gerontocratic? So, expecting an under-60 to be president next year is a long shoot.
Three things I think are affecting Atiku. One. It is less about his age (at least there are no controversies about it nor his academic credentials), but the point that in recent years, our presidents have spent more time on the sick bay than behind their work desks and so Nigerians want Aso Rock to be a workstation and not a care home. Secondly, Atiku doesn’t signpost something different for Nigerians. He has been so much in the scene with the same actors changing roles that delivered the same boring script. Thirdly, he is a northerner. This unwritten and unconstitutional arrangement that the presidency oscillates between the north and the south gives him a disadvantage as it is still the turn of the south.
However, he possesses the art of winning party primaries, especially that of an ADC coalition that he brought together. That is a massive advantage. Besides being experienced, Atiku has developed a knack of fighting his political bouts tenaciously and diligently. Whether it be against his former boss Olusegun Obasanjo, the zoning formula or even the perception of the electorate, he never shies away from putting himself in the ring. He is also a friend of the courts. This is one of Atiku’s traits that is overlooked. He is accused of corruption but not political thuggery. His political message of privatization and capitalism has been consistent. He may not be a saint; he has the ideology. Finally, he looks like the only opposition politician that has the political capital in cash, national spread and experience to beat the incumbent.
Many advise Atiku to sacrifice his presidential ambition for a younger and popular candidate. After all his investment in ADC? I doubt. He will only go this route if he sees disgrace not defeat and that would come with strong bargaining that would be in his favour.
The former governor of Rivers State, Rotimi Amaechi is also in the conversation. He is experienced and finishing second behind President Bola Tinubu in the last APC primaries ahead of the then Senate President, Ahmed Lawan and sitting Vice President Yemi Osinbajo which makes him a dark horse.
Like 2015 where the three leading opposition candidates in the previous election in the newly formed alliance, 2027 also sees the three leading presidential candidates of the last election in ADC. In 2015, the then incumbent party was defeated. I suggest that ADC doesn’t go the consensus route that the just concluded APC and PDP primaries went. That process appeared choreographed to suit somebody. They should settle all leadership issues they have with the courts and the electoral body, present their strongest suits in all elective positions, stretch their membership nets and make up for lost time and continue to woo the voters.
Okunfolami writes from
Festac, Lagos
@ayookunfolami
🚨 BREAKING: Watch the full clip here ➤
