The Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed to commercial shipping despite a tentative ceasefire between America and Iran, with vessel-tracking services showing almost no change in traffic and analysts warning that Tehran’s toll system for transit is fully intact.
Just three vessels have been tracked transiting the strait since the ceasefire was announced early Wednesday, all with current or past links to Iran, according to Lloyd’s List.
Another three ships were positioned to cross or move towards the Iran-approved detour around Larak Island.
Jashan Prema, crude analyst at the trade intelligence firm Kpler, said the last observed oil shipment crossed on 5 April, totalling about 5.6 million barrels, the majority Iranian in origin, with around one million barrels of Iraq’s Basrah Heavy also included. “Following the ceasefire announcement, no new oil transits have yet been confirmed,” he told The Independent, adding that he expected to see some activity in the coming days as the situation stabilised.
No LNG has transited the strait since the war started.
Brent crude climbed back above $96 a barrel on Thursday as doubts over the ceasefire’s durability emerged, with Israel continuing to strike Lebanon and Iran accusing it of violating the terms of the truce.
Equity markets across the globe fell, with South Korea’s slipping 0.4 per cent and Japan’s Nikkei and US futures all suffering drops.
“Doubt about the durability of the Iran ceasefire is filtering in, fraying nerves once again,” Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, said.
“The Strait of Hormuz remains largely obstructed, with oil tanker traffic suspended once again after Israel’s renegade action.”
She warned that even if shipments resumed, tankers would face mined waters and a heightened military presence, keeping insurance premiums and freight costs elevated.
“Significant damage to key energy infrastructure across the Gulf is set to keep prices elevated until repairs can be completed, which for some facilities could take years,” she said.
In spite of the ceasefire announcement, threats from both sides continued. US president Donald Trump posted a statement insisting that his surge of warships and troops would stay around Iran “until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with”.
“If for any reason it is not, which is highly unlikely, then the ‘Shootin’ Starts,’ bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before,” he wrote.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a radio broadcast on Wednesday warning vessels they would be “destroyed” if they attempted to transit without permission, language unchanged from before the ceasefire.
Iran’s approval regime for transit remained unchanged in the wake of the ceasefire, Lloyd’s List said. Its verification process, which requires shipowners to submit detailed documentation on ownership, finance, insurance and trading history, is still being conducted on a ship-by-ship basis.
Several countries with direct diplomatic deals with Tehran, such as Iraq, India, Pakistan, Malaysia and Vietnam, were not being required to pay transit fees directly. But any vessel without such an agreement faced toll demands that, according to Lloyd’s List, were settled in either cryptocurrency or yuan.
Analysts previously told The Independent that ships had been asked to pay as much as $2m for transit.
The legal status of the toll remains uncertain. A lawyer advising a Chinese operator with several vessels stranded in the Middle East told Lloyd’s List owners were scrambling to understand how these transit fees would be collected and who would ultimately bear the cost.
More than 800 vessels have been stranded in the Gulf since late February. Traffic through the strait has averaged three-five transits per day over the past two weeks, according to Windward Maritime Intelligence.
Transit has shifted into a dual-corridor system, with a northern IRGC-controlled route near Larak Island and a newer southern pathway along the Omani coastline that became operational in early April.
Analysts say even if the ceasefire holds, the traffic is unlikely to resume quickly.
“The situation remains highly volatile, and despite the ceasefire, shipowners are unlikely to rush back into the Gulf to load fossil fuels,” Isaac Levi, a senior analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, said.
Andres Cala, analyst at energy intelligence provider Montel, said recovery depended entirely on whether the truce would hold. “If the ceasefire holds, which is a big if, it would allow loaded ships waiting in the Gulf to move quickly to take advantage of the window,” he said. “But if the ceasefire unravels, or if Iran retains any meaningful leverage over traffic through Hormuz, oil and gas markets will rapidly reprice risk, factoring in persistent Gulf supply uncertainty and structurally higher prices.”
A delegation led by US vice president JD Vance is expected to travel to Pakistan this weekend in an effort to consolidate the ceasefire and negotiate the reopening of the strait.
