Olufemi Aduwo
The historical episode involving Arthur Nzeribe and the Association for Better Nigeria (ABN) is well documented and offers a stark precedent for the political manipulation now unfolding in Nigeria. In the lead-up to the 12 June 1993 presidential election widely regarded as the freest and fairest in the country’s history Nzeribe, a former senator with close ties to General Ibrahim Babangida’s regime, established the ABN as a supposedly independent pressure group.Just forty-eight hours before polling, on 10 June 1993, the ABN secured a midnight injunction from Justice Bassey Ikpeme of the Abuja High Court, ostensibly to halt the election over alleged irregularities.
Although voting went ahead and Basorun Moshood Abiola of the Social Democratic Party won convincingly, the military regime exploited the resulting legal confusion including a further injunction on 15 June to justify the annulment of the results on 23 June. Nzeribe later boasted openly that he had achieved his objective.He was no lone actor but a convenient instrument deployed by entrenched interests determined to prevent the emergence of a civilian government that might challenge the status quo.The consequences were devastating: prolonged instability, brutal dictatorship, Abiola’s imprisonment and death, and a deep scar on Nigeria’s democratic psyche.
Fast forward to April 2026 and the parallels under civilian rule are both striking and deeply troubling.The All Progressives Congress (APC) is pursuing a strikingly similar strategy, only with greater subtlety. It is deliberately identifying and elevating individuals within opposition parties to foment division, provoke litigation and ultimately render those parties incapable of fielding valid candidates for the 2027 general elections. This is not political happenstance, it is a calculated project aimed at engineering a de facto one-party state.
The African Democratic Congress (ADC) offers the clearest example.Having positioned itself as a potential umbrella for opposition forces, including Senator David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola, the party has been plunged into crisis through factional leadership claims and judicial entanglements. At the heart of this storm lies the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). By removing the names of a recognised National Working Committee from its official portal, INEC has effectively rendered the ADC leaderless.
This cannot credibly be described as compliance with a court order.If a court directs parties to maintain the status quo, that means preserving the existing state of affairs, not annihilating it.The ADC was not leaderless before the litigation began.To interpret “status quo” as justification for administrative erasure is to pervert both logic and language.It is the judicial equivalent of burning down the house in the name of protecting it.
INEC’s actions betray neither neutrality nor passivity. Whether by design or willing acquiescence, the electoral umpire has stepped onto the pitch and tilted it decisively in favour of the ruling party.This pattern extends beyond the ADC to other opposition platforms, where manufactured crises, selective litigation and convenient defections consistently benefit the APC.There is no honest refuge in claims of mere “internal party problems.” What Nigeria is witnessing is coordinated disruption, systematically amplified and weaponised by those who stand to gain most from it.
Democracy rarely dies through dramatic coups alone, it can be quietly suffocated through institutional capture and procedural sabotage.What happened in 1993 was crude and immediate.What is happening now is more insidious a slow, deliberate erosion of the structures that guarantee genuine electoral choice.
The strategy being pursued by the APC, aided and abetted by INEC, constitutes a reckless and dangerous assault on Nigeria’s democratic foundations.By manufacturing leaderlessness in opposition parties, the ruling party risks turning the 2027 elections into a mere coronation rather than a contest.
Such a path is not only anti-democratic, it is profoundly perilous.Nigerians have repeatedly shown, from the June 12 struggle onwards, that they will not quietly surrender their political rights.Any attempt to impose a one-party reality through subterfuge will provoke resistance. A government that wins by crippling its opponents rather than persuading the electorate will govern without legitimacy, presiding over a resentful nation where stability is fragile and trust in institutions lies in ruins.
This is a dangerous and self defeating game.History has been merciless to those who manipulate democratic institutions for raw power retention.The forces that once used Nzeribe eventually lost control of the very chaos they created and Nigeria paid a terrible price.Today’s Nigerians are more informed, more connected and far less tolerant of such elite machinations.The world, too, is watching.
APC,the course you are charting leads to a dead end.Reverse it now, restore institutional integrity and compete on policy and performance or risk backlash, isolation and lasting historical condemnation.The choice is yours, but the consequences will belong to all of Nigeria.
•Olufemi Aduwo
Permanent Representative of CCDI to ECOSOC/United Nations.
NB: Centre for Convention on Democratic Integrity, a non-profit organisation with Consultative Status of United Nations.
Email: [email protected]
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