Renowned historian and public intellectual, Toyin Falola, has warned that escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran could result in higher oil revenues for Nigeria while simultaneously worsening the economic conditions of ordinary citizens.
Falola spoke on Saturday at the February 2026 edition of Diaspora Dialogues, held online with the theme ‘Being African in Trump’s America in the Age of ICE Raids’.
Falola argued, while redirecting the Trump–Iran confrontation within a wider global and African context, that Nigeria is unlikely to convert any oil windfall arising from geopolitical instability into sustainable development.
“With this, Nigeria will see an increase in its oil revenues; it may even be immediate,” he said. “But if you don’t have development as your agenda, no amount of money you get can generate that development. Money cannot do structural re-engineering for you.”
According to him, Nigeria’s historical experience with boom periods shows that sudden inflows of revenue often strengthen political patronage rather than public welfare.
“You will end up merely distributing that money to your colleagues in the political party,” Falola warned, adding that “the common man may only see price increases.”
He explained that global conflicts tend to generate inflationary pressures that disproportionately affect poorer societies, particularly those dependent on imports. Drawing parallels with the Russia–Ukraine war, Falola criticised what he described as Africa’s tendency to underestimate distant geopolitical crises.
“We tend to fragment reality so that if Russia attacks Ukraine, and if you are living in Tanzania, you would assume that it is none of your business,” he said. “You have forgotten that Ukraine produces about 40 percent of the world’s grain that you consume. One way or another, what happens in Ukraine will affect you.”
Falola noted that the outbreak of the war also revealed Africa’s often unseen exposure to global conflicts. “It was when the war broke out that I learnt that there were 10,000 Nigerians in Ukraine. I never knew that,” he said.
Turning to the Trump–Iran confrontation, Falola rejected claims that Iran poses an existential threat to the United States, warning that external aggression often consolidates domestic support for regimes under attack.
“Iran is not a threat to the US,” he said. “Donald Trump says he is trying to mobilise Iranian citizens to overthrow their government, forgetting that no matter how you hate your government, when an imperialist comes, you can quickly become sympathetic to that very regime.”
He stressed that instability in Iran’s region would have far-reaching consequences for Africa. “This is going to affect Africa,” Falola said. “If people think this will not affect them, then they do not understand how geopolitics works.”
Pointing to the interconnectedness of the Middle East and Africa, he cited recent disruptions in global travel and commerce. “Where Iran is located in its region is connected to Africa. Dubai is a hub; it has closed its airports since the attack on Iran,” he noted.
Falola further warned that sectarian dynamics and militant responses could widen the conflict. “We do not know how the Muslim population will react; maybe they will say the Iranians are Shiite and decide to support the Sunnis. Hezbollah has already indicated that it is going to get involved.”
He traced how instability in the Middle East could spill into Africa through long-established routes. “If we understand the map very well, there are corridors that will be affected if that region is destabilised,” he said.
“The area called Borno State, which has Boko Haram, is linked to Darfur. People used to trek from that place during the pilgrimage to Darfur.
“This US–Israeli/Iran crisis will get to Sudan because of links to the Horn of Africa,” underscoring Africa’s vulnerability to global security shocks.
Falola argued that while Nigeria may benefit fiscally in the short term from rising oil prices, the broader social impact would likely be negative without deliberate planning. “If you don’t have development as your agenda,” he reiterated, “no amount of money you get can generate that development.”
The Diaspora Dialogues programme was anchored by Dr Osmund Agbo, Professor Farooq Kperogi and Professor Moses Ochonu.
