The World Bank has said Nigeria’s quest to build a $1tn economy by 2050 will depend largely on how urgently it invests in early childhood development, warning that productivity gaps formed before age five could weaken long-term growth.
The Lead, Early Years Programme at the World Bank, Dr Ritgak Tilley-Gyado, said this in Abuja on Tuesday during a high-level dialogue on Early Childhood, Productivity, and Nigeria’s Growth Choices organised by SBM Intelligence in collaboration with the World Bank and Nigerian think tanks.
Linking early childhood outcomes directly to Nigeria’s economic ambition, she asked, “Can Nigeria become a trillion-dollar economy by 2050 without deliberately investing in its youngest citizens? By then, the cohort of children that are aged 0-5 will be 15-21 years, ripe, active, and ready to participate in the labour force or about to be.”
She argued that debates about macroeconomic reforms, infrastructure, and jobs often overlook the foundation of human capital, which is formed in the earliest years of life. According to her, gaps in learning, health, and skills frequently begin before a child turns five and become difficult and costly to reverse later.
Tilley-Gyado described early childhood development as an economic issue rather than a welfare concern. “Early childhood investment is not social spending. It is an economic strategy,” she said, noting that by the time governments respond to inequality in adolescence or adulthood, the roots of those disparities are already entrenched.
She illustrated her point by comparing two children born with equal potential but raised under different conditions. While one benefits from adequate nutrition, safe surroundings, and responsive caregiving, the other faces illness, stress, and delayed support systems.
By the time both enter school, their trajectories are already diverging. The World Bank official also criticised policy fragmentation across ministries, warning that children do not experience life in administrative silos.
Health, nutrition, sanitation, safety, and early learning are interconnected, and weak coordination across these areas can undermine outcomes even in committed households. She further cautioned that Nigeria’s youthful population will not automatically translate into prosperity.
“Demographics alone do not guarantee prosperity. A young population becomes an asset only when its youngest children develop the capabilities to thrive as adults,” she said, adding that without deliberate investment, rapid population growth could deepen inequality rather than reduce it.
Citing global evidence, she noted that early childhood investments generate some of the highest returns available to societies. Each dollar spent in the early years, she said, can yield up to $13 in higher productivity, earnings, and reduced social costs over time.
Also speaking, the Managing Partner at SBM Intelligence, Ikemesit Effiong, said Nigeria was losing critical productivity potential in the earliest years of life, long before children enter the formal education system.
He said the dialogue was anchored on an uncomfortable reality that by the time a child starts Primary 1, many of the economic determinants of future productivity have already been shaped by conditions during pregnancy, infancy, and early childhood.
Citing the 2024 Demographic and Health Survey, Effiong noted that under-five mortality has declined to about 110 deaths per 1,000 live births from 132 in 2018, but neonatal mortality remains around 41 per 1,000 live births.
He added that roughly 40 per cent of Nigerian children under five are stunted. “These are not just health statistics; they are early warnings about the future workforce, future taxpayers, and future innovators our economy will either have or not have,” he said.
Effiong described early deprivation as a “productivity crisis that arrives 20 years before someone first searches for a job,” warning that continued underinvestment in the first 1,000 days would weaken returns from later spending on schooling and skills.
He added that Nigeria must treat early childhood as core economic infrastructure, not a marginal social programme.
In her presentation, a paediatric neuroscientist at Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Dr Tosin Olorunmoteni, said early childhood development rests on the “nurturing care framework” of health, nutrition, responsive caregiving, safety, and early learning, stressing that brain development is most rapid in the first 2,000 days of life.
She warned that nearly half of Nigerian children live in poverty, about 40 per cent are stunted, millions are out of school, and exposure to violence, poor sanitation, and weak health systems continues to shape negative developmental pathways from birth.
Olorunmoteni called for a comprehensive, multisectoral national strategy that combines universal support for all children with targeted interventions for those at risk, backed by stronger screening, data systems, and coordinated service delivery.
Also speaking, the Country Director of DAI Global, Dr Joe Abah, said Nigeria’s early childhood challenge is less about policy absence and more about weak coordination, poor financing, and limited accountability across government tiers.
He noted that although the Child Rights Act has been adopted nationwide and multiple policies exist, implementation remains fragmented, funding is inadequate, and there is no apex body overseeing all five domains of early childhood development.
Abah urged the creation of a unified, multisectoral framework with clear budget commitments, stronger monitoring and high-level political oversight to place the child, rather than institutions, at the centre of government action.
The NGGOSSIPS earlier in December 2025 reported that northern governors affirmed their commitment to prioritising the first 2,000 days of children’s lives, emphasising that early investments are crucial for the region’s peace, productivity, and long-term economic growth.
The pledge followed a briefing by World Bank officials to the Northern Governors Forum, examining strategies to address the North’s “worrying childhood development outcomes.”
