There are moments in politics when you hear a suggestion so astonishingly shallow that you almost wonder if it was intended as satire. That was exactly my reaction when an aide to a former Osun governor casually declared that all major political parties in the state should pick their gubernatorial candidates from the same senatorial district, Osun West.
What a breathtakingly pedestrian idea.
Does it not occur to him that the smartest political ambush the APC could spring is to plant its flag in Osogbo, the single largest voting bloc in the entire state, and watch PDP and ADC slug it out in the West, splitting themselves into irrelevance?
The thought didn’t even wander near his radar. And that, right there, is why these zoning evangelists keep misdiagnosing Osun politics.
The Edo Template: A Misread Strategy Forced on the Wrong State
The loud argument that Osun should “copy Edo’s formula” is not just flawed — it is built on a complete misreading of both states’ political DNA. The people pushing this analogy are treating two entirely different political organisms like identical twins. Edo’s victory calculus was a child of regional injustice, pent-up sentiment, and political correction. Osun’s electoral engine runs on a completely different fuel.
Trying to Photoshop Edo’s electoral logic onto Osun is like insisting a fish should climb a tree because a monkey did it successfully.
1. Osun Votes by Town, Not by Zone
Let’s start with the foundational truth:
Osun voters don’t care about zoning. They never have.
Three towns, not senatorial districts, have repeatedly determined who becomes governor:
Osogbo: The lion’s share of votes, the decider.
Ede: Home of the incumbent, the emotional fortress.
Ile-Ife: The swing junction that never fully pledges loyalty.
Forget the map of senatorial districts. If you don’t win Osogbo, command respect in Ede, and survive the unpredictability of Ife, no zoning sermon can save you.
This is why “West Lokan” fizzled. It was pretty noise, zero electoral conversion.
2. Edo’s Case Was a One-Off, Not a Template
In Edo, a region that had ruled for just eight months in 25 years carried a legitimate grievance. Both APC and PDP responded to that grievance by aligning behind Edo Central.
That was a political correction, not a political tradition.
Osun has no such imbalance, no such historical anger, no such moral demand. Zoning has never been a bargaining chip here. Trying to force Edo’s emotional architecture onto Osun is the electoral equivalent of wearing someone else’s prescription glasses, everything becomes blurry and dangerous.
3. *Voting Data in Osun Follows One Simple Logic*
Study the 2014, 2018, and 2022 numbers and one pattern jumps out like a billboard:
When Osogbo shifts, the election shifts.
This is empirical, not theoretical.
Osogbo is the swing, Ede is the wind, Ife is the brake.
Zones? They’re just background noise.
Anyone pushing a zoning agenda in Osun is simply trying to win an argument, not an election.
4. Blindly Copying Edo Would Be A Strategic Disaster
If any party adopts the Edo approach in Osun, here are the guaranteed consequences:
You ignore the biggest and most decisive voting bloc.
You gamble on a sentiment that has no electoral history.
You fuel a strategy built on political laziness, not intelligence.
You underestimate Osogbo voters, who have never outsourced their decision-making to zoning warriors.
The Edo zoning success was contextual, not universal.
5. The Only Strategy That Works in Osun
Anyone dreaming of victory in 2026 must face reality instead of fiction:
1. Start from Osogbo always.
2. Account for Ede’s incumbency influence.
3. Navigate Ife’s stubborn unpredictability.
These are the three levers that have shaped Osun’s last three electoral cycles.
Everything else is political noise for the easily impressed.
The Road to Abere Passes Through Osogbo, Not Through a Forced Zonal Theory
The Edo model is not a magic wand. It is a product of Edo’s unique political imbalance. Osun has zero correlation with that structure.
So let’s call it what it is:
Copying Edo’s strategy in Osun is intellectually lazy and strategically suicidal.
Osun’s political engine runs on town-based voter strength, not sentimental zoning fantasies.
Anyone serious about winning must first win Osogbo, or prepare to write concession speeches. Period!
Abosede Omisade, an undergraduate of Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), contributed this piece from Ile-Ife
