We have a Pelicans vs. Warriors prediction as New Orleans seems to be staying hot after five straight wins.
At 38-37, the Pelicans are the eighth seed but are a half-game shy of a coveted top-six spot to avoid the playoff play-in tournament.
Turning to Golden State, it’s in the seventh seed, a half-game ahead of New Orleans after losing the neck-and-neck tiebreaker with Minnesota.
- Advertisement -
And with less than two weeks to play in the regular season, this clash already feels like a playoff game.
In this preview, I’ll share why I think the Pelicans will be up to Tuesday night’s challenge.
Odds provided by FanDuel
spread: NOLA +9 (-110) vs. GSW -9 (-110)
- Advertisement -
money line: NOLA (+300) vs GSW (-375)
In total: About 234.5 (-110) | Below 234.5 (-110)
Pelicans +9
- Advertisement -
On December 31, the Pelicans were 10 games over .500 and riding high in the Western Conference. Zion Williamson was back in the lineup and it looked like New Orleans was finally ready to turn the corner.
However, Williamson strained his hamstring in their next game and has not been on the court since January 2.
What followed was a stretch in which the Pelicans went 3-13 on a 10-game losing streak.
So it’s not illogical to conclude that Williamson played a massive role in the Pelicans’ success earlier this season.
Overall, this Pelicans team has a lot of good plays considering forward Brandon Ingram and guard CJ McCollum each average 20 or more points.
You also get the production in the center with Jonas Valanciunas and Trey Murphy III in the backcourt. Both average about 14 points per game.
Even without Zion, the Pelicans have eight players who average at least nine points per game.
This is an incredibly strong team with a bench that ranks seventh in the plus/minus category (+0.9) according to NBA.com.
With Williamson sidelined, New Orleans had to lean into his defense. According to TeamRankings, the Pelicans have risen from 20th place in defensive efficiency last season to fifth this season.
They also have the second-best defensive efficiency in the league in their last three games, allowing 95.2 points per 100 possessions.
Part of the Pelicans’ recent success has been their ability to defend the perimeter. In that three-game span, they rank in the top 10 allowable opposing 3-pointers.
You’ll be tested against a Warriors team that leads the league with 41.8% of their points behind the 3-point line.
But even if you value the Golden State the most, that point range feels too high at this point.
According to our Action Labs database, there have been nine games this season where the Warriors opened as favorites with nine points or more and they are 3-6 against the spread.
A closer look reveals that the three games they covered all played against a Rockets team with the second-worst record in the league at 18-58.
So if we remove the Rockets, Golden State is a miserable 0-6 against the spread at this point.
Given how well the Pelicans are playing, I expect they’ll be competitive enough to keep this game within number.
Get the points with the outsiders of the street.
Source